Metodologiya

Field Shift UZ dehqon, chorvador, yer tanlovchi va mutaxassis uchun NASA va hamkor agentliklar ma'lumotlarini oladi. Dala uchun tarix, iqlim xavfi, sho'rlanish va suv talabini hisoblaydi va kamida 3 ta rotatsiya strategiyasini hozirgi rotatsiya bilan solishtiradi. Yaylov uchun holatni 20 yillik me'yor bilan, sig'imni, issiqlik stressini va eng yaqin suvni ko'rsatadi. Yer tanlashda 2–4 joyni maqsad bo'yicha solishtiradi. Tavsiyalarni qoidalar va ballash tizimi beradi, LLM esa faqat tushuntirish yozadi. Har bir raqamning manbasi ko'rsatiladi.

Ma'lumotlar manbalari

Dataset	Nima uchun	O'lcham	Davr
NASA POWER (MERRA-2/GEOS, AG)	20 yillik kunlik iqlim: ET0, GDD, sovuq, jazirama, yog'in, SPI	0.5° × 0.625°	2005–2025
Sentinel-2 L2A (ESA)	Oylik NDVI (dala tarixi) va SI (sho'rlanish), SCL bulut maskasi	10–20 m	2017–2026
SMAP L4 (NASA)	Xarita qatlami: ildiz zonasi namligi	9 km	2015–
MODIS NDVI 8-day (NASA)	Xarita qatlami: hudud ko'kligi	250 m	2000–
GPM IMERG (NASA)	Xarita qatlami: yog'in	0.1°	2000–
SRTM GL1 (NASA/USGS)	Balandlik va qiyalik	30 m	2000
SoilGrids 2.0 (ISRIC)	Gil, qum, organik uglerod, pH	250 m	—
ERA5 (ECMWF, Open-Meteo)	ET0 ansambli va SEAS5 uchun referens iqlim	0.25°	2005–2025
ECMWF SEAS5 (Open-Meteo)	6 oylik mavsumiy prognoz, 51 senariy	≈ 36 km	—
MODIS MOD13Q1 NDVI 16-day (NASA)	Yaylov holati: joriy yil va 20 yillik me'yor	250 m	2005–2026
MODIS MOD17A3HGF NPP (NASA)	Yaylov sig'imi: yillik biomassa (Terra + Aqua o'rtachasi)	500 m	2001–2025
MODIS MOD16A3GF ET (NASA)	Haqiqiy suv iste'molini mustaqil tekshirish (A1)	500 m	2015–2025
MODIS MOD10A2 snow cover (NASA)	Tog'lardagi qor: suv ta'minoti signali (N1)	500 m	2001–2026
ERA5-Land soil temperature (ECMWF)	Tuproq harorati bo'yicha ekish va muzlash (N2, N8)	0.1°	2005–2025
GloFAS v4 (Copernicus)	Yozgi daryo oqimi (N1)	0.05°	2001–2026
FAO GAEZ v4	Hududga moslik va potensial hosil (N9)	5′ ≈ 9 km	1981–2010
JRC Global Surface Water (EC JRC / Google)	Eng yaqin doimiy va mavsumiy suv manbai (12 km radius)	30 m	1984–2020

Usullar

ET0FAO-56 Penman–Monteith (Eq. 6), Rn from POWER ALLSKY_SFC_SW_DWN; ensemble mean with ERA5 FAO-56 ET0

GDDΣ max(0, (Tmax + Tmin)/2 − Tbase)

FrostLast spring / first autumn Tmin < 0 °C per year; median, extremes, P90

HeatDays with Tmax ≥ 40 °C per year, Theil–Sen trend

SPI-33-month rainfall, gamma fit per calendar month (Thom 1958), inverse normal

NDVI(B08 − B04)/(B08 + B04), SCL ∈ {4, 5}, 2 least-cloudy scenes per month, median

SalinitySI = √(B02·B04) on bare months (NDVI < 0.2); 3 levels (provisional thresholds 0.22 / 0.27); lab ECe overrides

Water

ETc = Kc(t)·ET0 (FAO-56 Kc curves) · Peff USDA-SCS · 80 mm initial soil water · LR = ECw/(5·ECe_t − ECw) (FAO-29) · gross = net / η

Rules

R1 season/GDD · R2 salinity · R3 water limit · R4 rotation break · R5 legume bonus · R6 sowing window · R7 bare period · R8 nearest option

Score

Σ wᵢ·metricᵢ / Σ wᵢ; priority 1 = 3, 2 = 2, 3 = 1.5, others 0.5, climate risk 1; unknown (null) metrics are skipped and weights renormalised

🛡 RobustnessRe-score under normal / dry year (−30 % rain) / hot year (+1.5 °C): 0.5·min + 0.5·(100 − 2·σ)

Pasture

MODIS NDVI peak this year vs 2005–2025 median for the same months → anomaly %, percentile; NDVI stats on ≥ 1 km² around the place

Capacity

NPP (median, last 5 yr) × 2.2 (C→DM) × 0.45 (above-ground) × 0.3–0.5 (use) ÷ (11.5 kg DM × grazing days) → AU/ha; 1 cow = 1, 1 sheep/goat = 0.2, 1 horse = 1.25

THI

NRC 1971: THI = (1.8T + 32) − (0.55 − 0.0055·RH)(1.8T − 26); stress day = daily-mean THI ≥ 72, severe = daily-max THI ≥ 79

Suitability

Land selection: weighted mean of salinity .25, water .20, season .20, history .15, slope .10, heat .10 (pasture goal: NDVI, anomaly, THI, water, slope)

A1 actual ET

Kcb = 1.3·NDVI − 0.1 (Sentinel-2 monthly), Kc = Kcb + 0.1·(1 − fc), ETc_act = Kc·ET0 (POWER + ERA5); range a = 1.2–1.4 and both ET0 sources; check: MODIS MOD16A3GF

B1 leaching

Hoffman / FAO-29: Dlw = k·Ds·ECi/ECf, k = 0.1 intermittent (0.3 continuous), Ds = 0.6 m, ECf = threshold of the next crop; satellite ECi ±25 %; stages in the dekads with the lowest frozen-soil probability

N2 sowing

ERA5-Land 0–7 cm soil temperature 2005–2025: first day the 5-day mean ≥ crop minimum (cotton 12 °C …), median; window = max(that, P90 last frost + 3 d)

N8 frozenShare of days with 0–7 cm soil temperature < 0 °C per dekad, Nov–Mar, 20 years

N1 supply

MODIS MOD10A2 snow fraction over the mountain headwaters (Nov–Mar mean, Mar–Apr spring index) vs 2001–2026 median; GloFAS Jun–Aug flow; Pearson r spring snow vs summer flow

N9 GAEZ

FAO GAEZ v4 theme 4 (1981–2010, high input) suitability index and attainable yield at the field cell (5′ ≈ 9 km); 20 % of the land-selection score

B2 profit

Yield (farmer) × Maas–Hoffman salt factor × (1 − Ky·(1 − limit/need)) × price − cost; dry year = −30 % rain scenario; grain yields capped at the GAEZ potential

A6 backtest

Data cut at 1 Oct (no leakage) → plans → re-scored with the real next-year weather (water need, limit rule) → Spearman ρ of predicted vs realized ranks

❓ UnknownMissing or masked data is shown as ❓ with its reason, never as 0 (ADR-10)

AI modellar

Orqaga qarab sinov (A6)

…

Tekshiruvlar

🏔️ Qor va daryo oqimi (N1)

Sirdaryor = 0.32 (2001–2026)
Amudaryor = 0.27 (2001–2026)
Zarafshonr = -0.06 (2001–2026)

MODIS MOD10A2 bo'yicha bahorgi (mart–aprel) qor qoplami tog'li havzada va GloFAS yozgi (iyun–avgust) oqimi. Bog'liqlik kuchsiz: To'xtag'ul, Norak kabi suv omborlari va suv olish oqimni tartibga soladi. Shuning uchun signal tavsiyaga avtomatik ta'sir qilmaydi, faqat ko'rsatiladi.

🇺🇸 AQSh ma'lumotlarida tekshiruv (N4)

Reja: Kaliforniya va Arizonadagi paxta, bug'doy va beda dalalarida bizning Sentinel-2 → Kcb → ET usulini OpenET ansambli bilan solishtirish (RMSE, bias, R²). Holat: hali qilinmagan. OpenET va CropScape Google Earth Engine orqali olinadi, GEE ulanmagan. Natija bo'lmaguncha raqam ko'rsatilmaydi.

Hozircha mavjud mustaqil tekshiruv: MODIS MOD16 yillik ET bilan solishtirish (Suv tabida). ECOSTRESS (N5) uchun NASA Earthdata login kerak, WaPOR uchun GEE: ikkalasi ham ulanmagan.

NASA ma'lumotlari qayerda ishlatiladi

NASA POWER	Iqlim, ET0, GDD, sovuq, jazirama, SPI, THI, backtest
MODIS MOD13Q1 NDVI	Yaylov holati (20 yillik me'yor)
MODIS MOD17A3HGF NPP	Yaylov sig'imi
MODIS MOD16A3GF ET	Haqiqiy suv iste'molini tekshirish (A1)
MODIS MOD10A2 snow	Suv ta'minoti signali (N1)
SRTM	Balandlik, qiyalik, yer tanlash
SMAP L4 · GPM IMERG · MODIS (GIBS)	Xarita qatlamlari, Worldview (N12)
Sentinel-2 (ESA)	Dala tarixi, sho'rlanish, haqiqiy ET (Kcb)
ERA5 / ERA5-Land (ECMWF)	ET0 ansambli, tuproq harorati: ekish va muzlash (N2, N8)
GloFAS (Copernicus)	Yozgi daryo oqimi (N1)
FAO GAEZ v4	Hududga moslik, potensial hosil (N9)
JRC Global Surface Water	Eng yaqin suv manbai

AI tushuntirishlar

Tavsiyani LLM emas, qoidalar (R1–R8) va ballash beradi. Hozir barcha tushuntirishlar hisoblangan raqamlardan avtomatik shablon bilan yoziladi. Keyingi bosqichda LLM (Claude) ulanadi: u faqat shu JSON'ni oddiy tilga o'giradi, matndagi har bir raqam esa kirish ma'lumotlari bilan avtomatik solishtiriladi. Mos kelmasa, shablon matn ko'rsatiladi.

Cheklovlar

Sho'rlanish darajasi sun'iy yo'ldosh asosidagi taxmin. Chegaralar hali pilot dalalarda kalibrlanmagan (T7).
Dala tarixi hozircha NDVI qoidalari bilan aniqlanadi (B0). Presto modeli Remelgado 2020 namunalarida o'qitilishi kerak.
Paxta, makkajo'xori va sholi faqat NDVI bo'yicha bir-biridan yaxshi ajralmaydi.
NASA POWER katakchasi ~50 km: tog' oldi dalalarida harorat farq qilishi mumkin.
SEAS5 prognozi hindcast bilan tekshirilmagan, shuning uchun ishonch past deb ko'rsatiladi.
Ekin narxlari ekspert bahosi. Bozor ma'lumotlari hali ulanmagan.
Yaylov sig'imi o'rtacha koeffitsientlarga tayanadi. Yaylov turi va o't tarkibi hisobga olinmagan, shuning uchun oraliq (min–max) ko'rsatiladi.
GPS bo'yinbog' ma'lumotini ulash (M4) hozircha qilinmagan.
Rasmiy sug'orish me'yorlari (A2), tuman hosildorligi va narxlar (B2) hali yig'ilmagan: ❓ ko'rsatiladi yoki foydalanuvchi o'zi kiritadi.
WaPOR va OpenET (N4) Google Earth Engine, ECOSTRESS (N5) esa Earthdata login talab qiladi: ulanmagan.
Haqiqiy ET (A1) uchun Kcb = a·NDVI + b koeffitsientlari adabiyotdan, mahalliy kalibrlanmagan (T12).
Kirill yozuvi avtomatik transliteratsiya: ba'zi so'zlar qo'lda tekshirilishi kerak.
JRC suv qatlami 2020 yilgacha. Yangi kanal yoki quduqlar ko'rinmasligi mumkin.
Kc va ECe qiymatlari FAO-56 va FAO-29 asl jadvallari bilan qayta solishtirilishi kerak (T6).

Lug'at

NDVI: O'simlik qanchalik yashil va sog'lom ekanini ko'rsatadigan son (0–1). 0.6 dan yuqori bo'lsa, ekin yaxshi o'syapti.; Normalized Difference Vegetation Index = (NIR − Qizil) / (NIR + Qizil). Sentinel-2 B8 va B4 kanallaridan, bulut va soya SCL maskasi bilan olib tashlanib hisoblanadi.
ET0: Ochiq havoda yer qancha suv bug'latishi (mm/kun). Ekinning suv talabi shunga asoslanadi.; FAO-56 Penman–Monteith formulasi: harorat, namlik, shamol va quyosh radiatsiyasidan (NASA POWER) hisoblanadi.
ETc: Aynan shu ekin qancha suv bug'latadi: ET0 × ekin koeffitsienti (Kc).; Kc o'sish bosqichiga qarab o'zgaradi (FAO-56 Jadval 12).
GDD: Ekin o'sishi uchun yig'ilgan "issiqlik". Har bir ekinga ma'lum miqdori kerak.; GDD = max(0, (Tmax + Tmin)/2 − Tbase), kunlar bo'yicha yig'indi.
ECe: Tuproq sho'rligi (dS/m). Qancha katta bo'lsa, shuncha sho'r.; To'yingan tuproq ekstraktining elektr o'tkazuvchanligi. Ekin hosili chegara qiymatdan keyin har dS/m uchun foizga kamayadi (Maas–Hoffman).
SI: Sun'iy yo'ldosh suratidan hisoblanadigan sho'rlanish ko'rsatkichi.; SI = √(Ko'k × Qizil) (Khan va boshq. 2005), faqat yalang'och tuproq oylarida (NDVI < 0.2). Taxminiy: mahalliy tahlil bilan kalibrlash kerak.
SPI: Qurg'oqchilik indeksi: 0 dan past bo'lsa quruq, −1.5 dan past bo'lsa kuchli qurg'oqchilik.; Standartlashtirilgan yog'in indeksi: 3 oylik yog'in gamma taqsimotiga moslab normal shkalaga o'tkaziladi.
Takroriy ekin: Asosiy ekindan keyin shu yilning o'zida ekiladigan ikkinchi ekin.; Masalan, iyunda bug'doy o'rilgach mosh yoki oq jo'xori ekiladi.
SEAS5: ECMWF'ning 51 ta senariyli mavsumiy prognozi.; Har bir senariyning anomaliyasi ERA5 normasiga nisbatan olinadi va NASA POWER normasiga qo'shiladi (delta usuli).
Sovuq: Minimal harorat 0°C dan pastga tushgan kun.; 20 yillik NASA POWER Tmin qatoridan har yil uchun oxirgi bahorgi va birinchi kuzgi sovuq sanasi olinadi.

FAO-56 · FAO-29 · NASA